## [1] 113937 81
## ListingKey ListingNumber
## 17A93590655669644DB4C06: 6 Min. : 4
## 349D3587495831350F0F648: 4 1st Qu.: 400919
## 47C1359638497431975670B: 4 Median : 600554
## 8474358854651984137201C: 4 Mean : 627886
## DE8535960513435199406CE: 4 3rd Qu.: 892634
## 04C13599434217079754AEE: 3 Max. :1255725
## (Other) :113912
## ListingCreationDate CreditGrade Term
## 2013-10-02 17:20:16.550000000: 6 :84984 Min. :12.00
## 2013-08-28 20:31:41.107000000: 4 C : 5649 1st Qu.:36.00
## 2013-09-08 09:27:44.853000000: 4 D : 5153 Median :36.00
## 2013-12-06 05:43:13.830000000: 4 B : 4389 Mean :40.83
## 2013-12-06 11:44:58.283000000: 4 AA : 3509 3rd Qu.:36.00
## 2013-08-21 07:25:22.360000000: 3 HR : 3508 Max. :60.00
## (Other) :113912 (Other): 6745
## LoanStatus ClosedDate
## Current :56576 :58848
## Completed :38074 2014-03-04 00:00:00: 105
## Chargedoff :11992 2014-02-19 00:00:00: 100
## Defaulted : 5018 2014-02-11 00:00:00: 92
## Past Due (1-15 days) : 806 2012-10-30 00:00:00: 81
## Past Due (31-60 days): 363 2013-02-26 00:00:00: 78
## (Other) : 1108 (Other) :54633
## BorrowerAPR BorrowerRate LenderYield
## Min. :0.00653 Min. :0.0000 Min. :-0.0100
## 1st Qu.:0.15629 1st Qu.:0.1340 1st Qu.: 0.1242
## Median :0.20976 Median :0.1840 Median : 0.1730
## Mean :0.21883 Mean :0.1928 Mean : 0.1827
## 3rd Qu.:0.28381 3rd Qu.:0.2500 3rd Qu.: 0.2400
## Max. :0.51229 Max. :0.4975 Max. : 0.4925
## NA's :25
## EstimatedEffectiveYield EstimatedLoss EstimatedReturn
## Min. :-0.183 Min. :0.005 Min. :-0.183
## 1st Qu.: 0.116 1st Qu.:0.042 1st Qu.: 0.074
## Median : 0.162 Median :0.072 Median : 0.092
## Mean : 0.169 Mean :0.080 Mean : 0.096
## 3rd Qu.: 0.224 3rd Qu.:0.112 3rd Qu.: 0.117
## Max. : 0.320 Max. :0.366 Max. : 0.284
## NA's :29084 NA's :29084 NA's :29084
## ProsperRating..numeric. ProsperRating..Alpha. ProsperScore
## Min. :1.000 :29084 Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.:3.000 C :18345 1st Qu.: 4.00
## Median :4.000 B :15581 Median : 6.00
## Mean :4.072 A :14551 Mean : 5.95
## 3rd Qu.:5.000 D :14274 3rd Qu.: 8.00
## Max. :7.000 E : 9795 Max. :11.00
## NA's :29084 (Other):12307 NA's :29084
## ListingCategory..numeric. BorrowerState
## Min. : 0.000 CA :14717
## 1st Qu.: 1.000 TX : 6842
## Median : 1.000 NY : 6729
## Mean : 2.774 FL : 6720
## 3rd Qu.: 3.000 IL : 5921
## Max. :20.000 : 5515
## (Other):67493
## Occupation EmploymentStatus
## Other :28617 Employed :67322
## Professional :13628 Full-time :26355
## Computer Programmer : 4478 Self-employed: 6134
## Executive : 4311 Not available: 5347
## Teacher : 3759 Other : 3806
## Administrative Assistant: 3688 : 2255
## (Other) :55456 (Other) : 2718
## EmploymentStatusDuration IsBorrowerHomeowner CurrentlyInGroup
## Min. : 0.00 False:56459 False:101218
## 1st Qu.: 26.00 True :57478 True : 12719
## Median : 67.00
## Mean : 96.07
## 3rd Qu.:137.00
## Max. :755.00
## NA's :7625
## GroupKey DateCreditPulled
## :100596 2013-12-23 09:38:12: 6
## 783C3371218786870A73D20: 1140 2013-11-21 09:09:41: 4
## 3D4D3366260257624AB272D: 916 2013-12-06 05:43:16: 4
## 6A3B336601725506917317E: 698 2014-01-14 20:17:49: 4
## FEF83377364176536637E50: 611 2014-02-09 12:14:41: 4
## C9643379247860156A00EC0: 342 2013-09-27 22:04:54: 3
## (Other) : 9634 (Other) :113912
## CreditScoreRangeLower CreditScoreRangeUpper
## Min. : 0.0 Min. : 19.0
## 1st Qu.:660.0 1st Qu.:679.0
## Median :680.0 Median :699.0
## Mean :685.6 Mean :704.6
## 3rd Qu.:720.0 3rd Qu.:739.0
## Max. :880.0 Max. :899.0
## NA's :591 NA's :591
## FirstRecordedCreditLine CurrentCreditLines OpenCreditLines
## : 697 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00
## 1993-12-01 00:00:00: 185 1st Qu.: 7.00 1st Qu.: 6.00
## 1994-11-01 00:00:00: 178 Median :10.00 Median : 9.00
## 1995-11-01 00:00:00: 168 Mean :10.32 Mean : 9.26
## 1990-04-01 00:00:00: 161 3rd Qu.:13.00 3rd Qu.:12.00
## 1995-03-01 00:00:00: 159 Max. :59.00 Max. :54.00
## (Other) :112389 NA's :7604 NA's :7604
## TotalCreditLinespast7years OpenRevolvingAccounts
## Min. : 2.00 Min. : 0.00
## 1st Qu.: 17.00 1st Qu.: 4.00
## Median : 25.00 Median : 6.00
## Mean : 26.75 Mean : 6.97
## 3rd Qu.: 35.00 3rd Qu.: 9.00
## Max. :136.00 Max. :51.00
## NA's :697
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment InquiriesLast6Months TotalInquiries
## Min. : 0.0 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0.000
## 1st Qu.: 114.0 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.: 2.000
## Median : 271.0 Median : 1.000 Median : 4.000
## Mean : 398.3 Mean : 1.435 Mean : 5.584
## 3rd Qu.: 525.0 3rd Qu.: 2.000 3rd Qu.: 7.000
## Max. :14985.0 Max. :105.000 Max. :379.000
## NA's :697 NA's :1159
## CurrentDelinquencies AmountDelinquent DelinquenciesLast7Years
## Min. : 0.0000 Min. : 0.0 Min. : 0.000
## 1st Qu.: 0.0000 1st Qu.: 0.0 1st Qu.: 0.000
## Median : 0.0000 Median : 0.0 Median : 0.000
## Mean : 0.5921 Mean : 984.5 Mean : 4.155
## 3rd Qu.: 0.0000 3rd Qu.: 0.0 3rd Qu.: 3.000
## Max. :83.0000 Max. :463881.0 Max. :99.000
## NA's :697 NA's :7622 NA's :990
## PublicRecordsLast10Years PublicRecordsLast12Months RevolvingCreditBalance
## Min. : 0.0000 Min. : 0.000 Min. : 0
## 1st Qu.: 0.0000 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.: 3121
## Median : 0.0000 Median : 0.000 Median : 8549
## Mean : 0.3126 Mean : 0.015 Mean : 17599
## 3rd Qu.: 0.0000 3rd Qu.: 0.000 3rd Qu.: 19521
## Max. :38.0000 Max. :20.000 Max. :1435667
## NA's :697 NA's :7604 NA's :7604
## BankcardUtilization AvailableBankcardCredit TotalTrades
## Min. :0.000 Min. : 0 Min. : 0.00
## 1st Qu.:0.310 1st Qu.: 880 1st Qu.: 15.00
## Median :0.600 Median : 4100 Median : 22.00
## Mean :0.561 Mean : 11210 Mean : 23.23
## 3rd Qu.:0.840 3rd Qu.: 13180 3rd Qu.: 30.00
## Max. :5.950 Max. :646285 Max. :126.00
## NA's :7604 NA's :7544 NA's :7544
## TradesNeverDelinquent..percentage. TradesOpenedLast6Months
## Min. :0.000 Min. : 0.000
## 1st Qu.:0.820 1st Qu.: 0.000
## Median :0.940 Median : 0.000
## Mean :0.886 Mean : 0.802
## 3rd Qu.:1.000 3rd Qu.: 1.000
## Max. :1.000 Max. :20.000
## NA's :7544 NA's :7544
## DebtToIncomeRatio IncomeRange IncomeVerifiable
## Min. : 0.000 $25,000-49,999:32192 False: 8669
## 1st Qu.: 0.140 $50,000-74,999:31050 True :105268
## Median : 0.220 $100,000+ :17337
## Mean : 0.276 $75,000-99,999:16916
## 3rd Qu.: 0.320 Not displayed : 7741
## Max. :10.010 $1-24,999 : 7274
## NA's :8554 (Other) : 1427
## StatedMonthlyIncome LoanKey TotalProsperLoans
## Min. : 0 CB1B37030986463208432A1: 6 Min. :0.00
## 1st Qu.: 3200 2DEE3698211017519D7333F: 4 1st Qu.:1.00
## Median : 4667 9F4B37043517554537C364C: 4 Median :1.00
## Mean : 5608 D895370150591392337ED6D: 4 Mean :1.42
## 3rd Qu.: 6825 E6FB37073953690388BC56D: 4 3rd Qu.:2.00
## Max. :1750003 0D8F37036734373301ED419: 3 Max. :8.00
## (Other) :113912 NA's :91852
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled OnTimeProsperPayments
## Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00
## 1st Qu.: 9.00 1st Qu.: 9.00
## Median : 16.00 Median : 15.00
## Mean : 22.93 Mean : 22.27
## 3rd Qu.: 33.00 3rd Qu.: 32.00
## Max. :141.00 Max. :141.00
## NA's :91852 NA's :91852
## ProsperPaymentsLessThanOneMonthLate ProsperPaymentsOneMonthPlusLate
## Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00
## 1st Qu.: 0.00 1st Qu.: 0.00
## Median : 0.00 Median : 0.00
## Mean : 0.61 Mean : 0.05
## 3rd Qu.: 0.00 3rd Qu.: 0.00
## Max. :42.00 Max. :21.00
## NA's :91852 NA's :91852
## ProsperPrincipalBorrowed ProsperPrincipalOutstanding
## Min. : 0 Min. : 0
## 1st Qu.: 3500 1st Qu.: 0
## Median : 6000 Median : 1627
## Mean : 8472 Mean : 2930
## 3rd Qu.:11000 3rd Qu.: 4127
## Max. :72499 Max. :23451
## NA's :91852 NA's :91852
## ScorexChangeAtTimeOfListing LoanCurrentDaysDelinquent
## Min. :-209.00 Min. : 0.0
## 1st Qu.: -35.00 1st Qu.: 0.0
## Median : -3.00 Median : 0.0
## Mean : -3.22 Mean : 152.8
## 3rd Qu.: 25.00 3rd Qu.: 0.0
## Max. : 286.00 Max. :2704.0
## NA's :95009
## LoanFirstDefaultedCycleNumber LoanMonthsSinceOrigination LoanNumber
## Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.0 Min. : 1
## 1st Qu.: 9.00 1st Qu.: 6.0 1st Qu.: 37332
## Median :14.00 Median : 21.0 Median : 68599
## Mean :16.27 Mean : 31.9 Mean : 69444
## 3rd Qu.:22.00 3rd Qu.: 65.0 3rd Qu.:101901
## Max. :44.00 Max. :100.0 Max. :136486
## NA's :96985
## LoanOriginalAmount LoanOriginationDate LoanOriginationQuarter
## Min. : 1000 2014-01-22 00:00:00: 491 Q4 2013:14450
## 1st Qu.: 4000 2013-11-13 00:00:00: 490 Q1 2014:12172
## Median : 6500 2014-02-19 00:00:00: 439 Q3 2013: 9180
## Mean : 8337 2013-10-16 00:00:00: 434 Q2 2013: 7099
## 3rd Qu.:12000 2014-01-28 00:00:00: 339 Q3 2012: 5632
## Max. :35000 2013-09-24 00:00:00: 316 Q2 2012: 5061
## (Other) :111428 (Other):60343
## MemberKey MonthlyLoanPayment LP_CustomerPayments
## 63CA34120866140639431C9: 9 Min. : 0.0 Min. : -2.35
## 16083364744933457E57FB9: 8 1st Qu.: 131.6 1st Qu.: 1005.76
## 3A2F3380477699707C81385: 8 Median : 217.7 Median : 2583.83
## 4D9C3403302047712AD0CDD: 8 Mean : 272.5 Mean : 4183.08
## 739C338135235294782AE75: 8 3rd Qu.: 371.6 3rd Qu.: 5548.40
## 7E1733653050264822FAA3D: 8 Max. :2251.5 Max. :40702.39
## (Other) :113888
## LP_CustomerPrincipalPayments LP_InterestandFees LP_ServiceFees
## Min. : 0.0 Min. : -2.35 Min. :-664.87
## 1st Qu.: 500.9 1st Qu.: 274.87 1st Qu.: -73.18
## Median : 1587.5 Median : 700.84 Median : -34.44
## Mean : 3105.5 Mean : 1077.54 Mean : -54.73
## 3rd Qu.: 4000.0 3rd Qu.: 1458.54 3rd Qu.: -13.92
## Max. :35000.0 Max. :15617.03 Max. : 32.06
##
## LP_CollectionFees LP_GrossPrincipalLoss LP_NetPrincipalLoss
## Min. :-9274.75 Min. : -94.2 Min. : -954.5
## 1st Qu.: 0.00 1st Qu.: 0.0 1st Qu.: 0.0
## Median : 0.00 Median : 0.0 Median : 0.0
## Mean : -14.24 Mean : 700.4 Mean : 681.4
## 3rd Qu.: 0.00 3rd Qu.: 0.0 3rd Qu.: 0.0
## Max. : 0.00 Max. :25000.0 Max. :25000.0
##
## LP_NonPrincipalRecoverypayments PercentFunded Recommendations
## Min. : 0.00 Min. :0.7000 Min. : 0.00000
## 1st Qu.: 0.00 1st Qu.:1.0000 1st Qu.: 0.00000
## Median : 0.00 Median :1.0000 Median : 0.00000
## Mean : 25.14 Mean :0.9986 Mean : 0.04803
## 3rd Qu.: 0.00 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.: 0.00000
## Max. :21117.90 Max. :1.0125 Max. :39.00000
##
## InvestmentFromFriendsCount InvestmentFromFriendsAmount Investors
## Min. : 0.00000 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 1.00
## 1st Qu.: 0.00000 1st Qu.: 0.00 1st Qu.: 2.00
## Median : 0.00000 Median : 0.00 Median : 44.00
## Mean : 0.02346 Mean : 16.55 Mean : 80.48
## 3rd Qu.: 0.00000 3rd Qu.: 0.00 3rd Qu.: 115.00
## Max. :33.00000 Max. :25000.00 Max. :1189.00
##
## 'data.frame': 113937 obs. of 81 variables:
## $ ListingKey : Factor w/ 113066 levels "00003546482094282EF90E5",..: 7180 7193 6647 6669 6686 6689 6699 6706 6687 6687 ...
## $ ListingNumber : int 193129 1209647 81716 658116 909464 1074836 750899 768193 1023355 1023355 ...
## $ ListingCreationDate : Factor w/ 113064 levels "2005-11-09 20:44:28.847000000",..: 14184 111894 6429 64760 85967 100310 72556 74019 97834 97834 ...
## $ CreditGrade : Factor w/ 9 levels "","A","AA","B",..: 5 1 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ Term : int 36 36 36 36 36 60 36 36 36 36 ...
## $ LoanStatus : Factor w/ 12 levels "Cancelled","Chargedoff",..: 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 ...
## $ ClosedDate : Factor w/ 2803 levels "","2005-11-25 00:00:00",..: 1138 1 1263 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ BorrowerAPR : num 0.165 0.12 0.283 0.125 0.246 ...
## $ BorrowerRate : num 0.158 0.092 0.275 0.0974 0.2085 ...
## $ LenderYield : num 0.138 0.082 0.24 0.0874 0.1985 ...
## $ EstimatedEffectiveYield : num NA 0.0796 NA 0.0849 0.1832 ...
## $ EstimatedLoss : num NA 0.0249 NA 0.0249 0.0925 ...
## $ EstimatedReturn : num NA 0.0547 NA 0.06 0.0907 ...
## $ ProsperRating..numeric. : int NA 6 NA 6 3 5 2 4 7 7 ...
## $ ProsperRating..Alpha. : Factor w/ 8 levels "","A","AA","B",..: 1 2 1 2 6 4 7 5 3 3 ...
## $ ProsperScore : num NA 7 NA 9 4 10 2 4 9 11 ...
## $ ListingCategory..numeric. : int 0 2 0 16 2 1 1 2 7 7 ...
## $ BorrowerState : Factor w/ 52 levels "","AK","AL","AR",..: 7 7 12 12 25 34 18 6 16 16 ...
## $ Occupation : Factor w/ 68 levels "","Accountant/CPA",..: 37 43 37 52 21 43 50 29 24 24 ...
## $ EmploymentStatus : Factor w/ 9 levels "","Employed",..: 9 2 4 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ...
## $ EmploymentStatusDuration : int 2 44 NA 113 44 82 172 103 269 269 ...
## $ IsBorrowerHomeowner : Factor w/ 2 levels "False","True": 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 ...
## $ CurrentlyInGroup : Factor w/ 2 levels "False","True": 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ GroupKey : Factor w/ 707 levels "","00343376901312423168731",..: 1 1 335 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ DateCreditPulled : Factor w/ 112992 levels "2005-11-09 00:30:04.487000000",..: 14347 111883 6446 64724 85857 100382 72500 73937 97888 97888 ...
## $ CreditScoreRangeLower : int 640 680 480 800 680 740 680 700 820 820 ...
## $ CreditScoreRangeUpper : int 659 699 499 819 699 759 699 719 839 839 ...
## $ FirstRecordedCreditLine : Factor w/ 11586 levels "","1947-08-24 00:00:00",..: 8639 6617 8927 2247 9498 497 8265 7685 5543 5543 ...
## $ CurrentCreditLines : int 5 14 NA 5 19 21 10 6 17 17 ...
## $ OpenCreditLines : int 4 14 NA 5 19 17 7 6 16 16 ...
## $ TotalCreditLinespast7years : int 12 29 3 29 49 49 20 10 32 32 ...
## $ OpenRevolvingAccounts : int 1 13 0 7 6 13 6 5 12 12 ...
## $ OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment : num 24 389 0 115 220 1410 214 101 219 219 ...
## $ InquiriesLast6Months : int 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 3 1 1 ...
## $ TotalInquiries : num 3 5 1 1 9 2 0 16 6 6 ...
## $ CurrentDelinquencies : int 2 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ AmountDelinquent : num 472 0 NA 10056 0 ...
## $ DelinquenciesLast7Years : int 4 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ PublicRecordsLast10Years : int 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 ...
## $ PublicRecordsLast12Months : int 0 0 NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ RevolvingCreditBalance : num 0 3989 NA 1444 6193 ...
## $ BankcardUtilization : num 0 0.21 NA 0.04 0.81 0.39 0.72 0.13 0.11 0.11 ...
## $ AvailableBankcardCredit : num 1500 10266 NA 30754 695 ...
## $ TotalTrades : num 11 29 NA 26 39 47 16 10 29 29 ...
## $ TradesNeverDelinquent..percentage. : num 0.81 1 NA 0.76 0.95 1 0.68 0.8 1 1 ...
## $ TradesOpenedLast6Months : num 0 2 NA 0 2 0 0 0 1 1 ...
## $ DebtToIncomeRatio : num 0.17 0.18 0.06 0.15 0.26 0.36 0.27 0.24 0.25 0.25 ...
## $ IncomeRange : Factor w/ 8 levels "$0","$1-24,999",..: 4 5 7 4 3 3 4 4 4 4 ...
## $ IncomeVerifiable : Factor w/ 2 levels "False","True": 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ...
## $ StatedMonthlyIncome : num 3083 6125 2083 2875 9583 ...
## $ LoanKey : Factor w/ 113066 levels "00003683605746079487FF7",..: 100337 69837 46303 70776 71387 86505 91250 5425 908 908 ...
## $ TotalProsperLoans : int NA NA NA NA 1 NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ TotalProsperPaymentsBilled : int NA NA NA NA 11 NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ OnTimeProsperPayments : int NA NA NA NA 11 NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ ProsperPaymentsLessThanOneMonthLate: int NA NA NA NA 0 NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ ProsperPaymentsOneMonthPlusLate : int NA NA NA NA 0 NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ ProsperPrincipalBorrowed : num NA NA NA NA 11000 NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ ProsperPrincipalOutstanding : num NA NA NA NA 9948 ...
## $ ScorexChangeAtTimeOfListing : int NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ LoanCurrentDaysDelinquent : int 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ LoanFirstDefaultedCycleNumber : int NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ LoanMonthsSinceOrigination : int 78 0 86 16 6 3 11 10 3 3 ...
## $ LoanNumber : int 19141 134815 6466 77296 102670 123257 88353 90051 121268 121268 ...
## $ LoanOriginalAmount : int 9425 10000 3001 10000 15000 15000 3000 10000 10000 10000 ...
## $ LoanOriginationDate : Factor w/ 1873 levels "2005-11-15 00:00:00",..: 426 1866 260 1535 1757 1821 1649 1666 1813 1813 ...
## $ LoanOriginationQuarter : Factor w/ 33 levels "Q1 2006","Q1 2007",..: 18 8 2 32 24 33 16 16 33 33 ...
## $ MemberKey : Factor w/ 90831 levels "00003397697413387CAF966",..: 11071 10302 33781 54939 19465 48037 60448 40951 26129 26129 ...
## $ MonthlyLoanPayment : num 330 319 123 321 564 ...
## $ LP_CustomerPayments : num 11396 0 4187 5143 2820 ...
## $ LP_CustomerPrincipalPayments : num 9425 0 3001 4091 1563 ...
## $ LP_InterestandFees : num 1971 0 1186 1052 1257 ...
## $ LP_ServiceFees : num -133.2 0 -24.2 -108 -60.3 ...
## $ LP_CollectionFees : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ LP_GrossPrincipalLoss : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ LP_NetPrincipalLoss : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ LP_NonPrincipalRecoverypayments : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ PercentFunded : num 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ Recommendations : int 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ InvestmentFromFriendsCount : int 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ InvestmentFromFriendsAmount : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ Investors : int 258 1 41 158 20 1 1 1 1 1 ...
This data exploration is on a large dataset consisted of 113,937 loans from Prosper Marketplace. The major goal of this exercise is to analyze what factors and how they affect the Prosper Score. Prosper Score ranges from 1 to 11 and is an indicator of the risk of Prosper borrower listings (the highest risk or worst is 1). I will start by looking at the distribution of each variable that I am interested. I will further explore the relationships between different variables and how they correlate with Prosper Score. Finally a model based on the findings will be created in order to predict the Prosper Score.
The Prosper Score seems to be mostly from 4 to 8. The score with the largest population is 4.
There are quite a lot of missing values (empty values) in the credit grade.
After removing the missing category, it is shown that the number of loans increases with decrease of CreditGrade until “C”. Then it drops with decrease of CreditGrade. There are very few loans with CreditGrade of “NC”. Why dont't people tend to borrow loans with the highest CreditGrade “A”, but rather a medium level “C”?
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 1000 4000 6500 8337 12000 35000
The median value for the original loan amount is 6500, mean value is 8337.
It is noticed that the majority of the loans have below 10000. And it seems that the distribution is multi-modal, with multiple peaks at 4500, 10000, 15000, 20000, 25000. Let's transform the plot into a better understandable plot.
It shows that with the increase of LoanOriginalAmount, number of loans decreases. Also, there are quite a few spikes above the normal trend which indicates the distribution is quite sparse, with most of loans with amount at times of 5000. There are very few loans with original amount over 25000.
Most of the borrowers have annual income range of $25K-$75K.
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
## 0.000 0.140 0.220 0.276 0.320 10.010 8554
DebtToIncomeRatio shows a near-normal distribution on log scale, peaking at 0.2.
StatedMonthlyIncome presents a normal distribution on the log scale.
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max.
## 0 3200 4667 5608 6825 1750000
The StatedMonthlyIncome's median is 4667 and mean value is 5608.
The majority of loans are from “Other” which indicates the distribution of the occupation is long-tail.
The majority of the loans are from “Employed” and “Full-Time” browers.
BorrowerAPR presents a distribution similar to a bell shape, peaking at around 0.18. There are also other 3 spikes at 0.09, 0.29, 0.37. Let's do a close look.
A finer tuned histogram shows a similar trend as above but with a prominent peak at 0.37. I wonder why there are so many loans with BorrowAPR at 37%? Also, the distribution seems to be multi-modal, particularly peaked at the low-level 0.09.
It appears that the Estimated Return poses a normal distribution, peaking at 0.1 and with some values below 0.
The transformed EstimatedReturn seems to be tri-modal peaking at 0.08, 0.11, 0.12, 0.14.
## stat_bin: binwidth defaulted to range/30. Use 'binwidth = x' to adjust this.
The number of loans appears to be exponentially decreasing with increase of TotalProsperLoans.
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
## 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.42 2.00 8.00 91852
## [1] "% NAs: 0.806164810377665 "
The summary shows there are 91852 NA values, about 80% of total observations. This means the majority of the borrowers are first-time borrowers on Prosper.
Above plot confirms the negative exponential relationship.
## stat_bin: binwidth defaulted to range/30. Use 'binwidth = x' to adjust this.
The above plot shows that the payment bills seem to be quite strange. It seems to be consisted of a couple of exponential decreasing distributions starting from 1, 7, 11, 35. There is a prominent spike at 35.
## [1] 11 67 12 8 9 20 9 1 4 12 16 6 6 9 10 32 35
## [18] 14 11 6 14 29 5 22 4 12 13 24 3 10 9 1 25 4
## [35] 15 46 14 2 6 13 30 35 2 12 27 9 9 18 18 28 12
## [52] 16 26 3 34 74 13 9 35 12 35 9 16 10 2 35 6 35
## [69] 2 36 12 34 54 35 63 7 50 7 32 33 34 21 19 8 38
## [86] 15 27 9 13 42 9 39 35 34 65 39 11 23 8 95 9 15
## [103] 56 7 63 53 50 7 8 9 66 25 6 2 20 51 11 7 11
## [120] 27 9 22 29 32 1 8 33 29 12 7 35 4 6 76 7 6
## [137] 46 35 12 12 20 9 13 25 16 67 17 13 15 20 7 1 11
## [154] 14 20 6 11 11 14 7 29 3 10 51 48 25 2 24 18 34
## [171] 67 8 38 23 22 11 78 19 25 11 11 9 26 11 6 10 17
## [188] 30 50 32 33 11 28 35 11 24 22 14 22 4 6 12 13 11
## [205] 13 10 53 107 17 9 13 35 26 46 24 10 22 1 7 17 35
## [222] 34 12 35 26 2 13 15 6 19 8 77 131 35 58 20 18 36
## [239] 10 6 2 9 6 6 19 9 36 14 39 30 14 6 4 23 7
## [256] 18 7 42 21 44 6 20 13 29 3 27 111 61 15 10 61 13
## [273] 5 31 36 50 77 23 35 55 11 11 7 28 4 15 59 30 26
## [290] 28 9 10 35 14 4 11 14 8 26 52 7 13 110 7 36 19
## [307] 6 4 10 26 32 8 62 47 11 58 3 6 14 13 67 11 35
## [324] 16 16 11 39 17 37 11 17 17 42 10 78 69 47 9 28 34
## [341] 5 9 20 9 6 12 27 1 38 31 36 8 1 8 10 16 13
## [358] 9 73 8 19 4 32 11 15 17 32 30 8 57 12 23 6 21
## [375] 35 6 3 64 14 10 89 26 66 6 10 8 18 65 15 26 23
## [392] 34 9 48 6 34 27 54 26 11 23 21 57 14 12 16 9 61
## [409] 15 72 8 18 11 9 5 6 52 28 7 29 35 21 64 44 34
## [426] 24 16 9 34 51 9 14 2 47 35 11 21 61 35 61 7 24
## [443] 101 83 53 57 29 47 19 24 62 1 35 12 10 7 9 14 6
## [460] 103 12 10 22 35 11 24 6 21 14 9 11 13 16 36 7 8
## [477] 10 14 8 10 70 6 6 11 6 17 27 1 22 28 24 34 31
## [494] 14 6 7 32 35 28 14 9 9 46 35 16 14 5 33 9 34
## [511] 6 9 9 9 2 16 47 14 35 101 9 52 20 19 16 10 2
## [528] 20 40 10 21 15 18 35 21 6 15 35 19 6 12 6 67 27
## [545] 9 57 11 25 6 24 9 9 11 27 36 32 35 102 9 33 2
## [562] 12 18 15 44 9 14 33 50 35 20 54 10 23 13 11 24 54
## [579] 14 19 14 24 44 44 42 19 10 22 73 7 10 15 22 18 51
## [596] 1 6 6 14 51 21 35 21 38 8 25 49 11 18 11 48 6
## [613] 9 17 2 1 17 42 16 10 24 28 13 18 28 9 60 11 17
## [630] 16 41 10 38 25 13 1 9 24 4 9 14 102 9 52 11 14
## [647] 12 19 1 45 26 76 12 10 8 18 10 35 20 15 22 55 18
## [664] 17 10 43 9 45 12 44 20 47 15 15 32 46 13 18 12 1
## [681] 24 40 70 9 75 31 51 12 24 26 0 30 2 18 31 21 9
## [698] 16 6 35 15 10 6 70 22 68 49 1 43 46 14 40 3 10
## [715] 25 7 24 13 16 20 10 55 32 53 4 22 13 49 26 35 15
## [732] 11 1 20 13 30 17 28 48 28 5 1 83 36 6 1 41 8
## [749] 35 21 29 53 9 56 81 43 1 56 68 10 118 11 32 4 47
## [766] 6 46 10 6 47 35 9 7 53 26 49 13 33 10 16 12 14
## [783] 4 39 15 29 9 9 62 8 25 11 32 13 10 35 11 38 18
## [800] 33 8 44 35 1 31 4 10 19 5 29 35 16 43 33 63 42
## [817] 10 13 7 12 9 71 8 9 3 11 9 7 17 21 25 9 17
## [834] 9 61 9 19 46 12 68 16 7 14 10 23 30 44 33 46 33
## [851] 9 15 6 21 20 10 9 16 30 27 8 14 36 6 17 21 30
## [868] 11 6 9 34 21 12 48 18 20 15 47 15 21 11 10 49 11
## [885] 64 20 10 20 55 11 9 26 35 36 24 35 13 48 49 20 6
## [902] 9 31 10 57 90 22 1 10 14 33 12 51 9 25 3 12 7
## [919] 20 24 25 7 14 18 9 13 17 10 88 35 35 10 14 30 14
## [936] 1 9 6 13 22 30 4 2 9 21 17 15 8 33 35 15 7
## [953] 53 15 32 7 24 25 23 9 23 53 5 9 9 16 16 13 14
## [970] 22 35 14 35 19 10 45 6 12 2 34 44 7 32 5 35 13
## [987] 30 7 8 9 9 15 35 8 8 33 6 44 4 6
## Min. 1st Qu. Median Mean 3rd Qu. Max. NA's
## 0.00 9.00 16.00 22.93 33.00 141.00 91852
The summary shows there are 91852 NA values, about 80% of total observations. This means the majority of
It shows that CurrentDelinquencies and DelinquenciesLast7Years present decreasing exponential distributions while AmountDelinquent presents a bell shape on log scale.
The time series plot shows the loans increase since 2006 and stumbled to 0 since end of 2008 (due to the finacial crisis). It recovers to increase since the end of 2009 and had a significant jump at the beginning of 2013.
##
## Cancelled Chargedoff Completed
## 5 11992 38074
## Current Defaulted FinalPaymentInProgress
## 56576 5018 205
## Past Due (>120 days) Past Due (1-15 days) Past Due (16-30 days)
## 16 806 265
## Past Due (31-60 days) Past Due (61-90 days) Past Due (91-120 days)
## 363 313 304
##
## Cancelled Chargedoff Completed
## 0.0000438839 0.1052511476 0.3341671274
## Current Defaulted FinalPaymentInProgress
## 0.4965551138 0.0440418828 0.0017992399
## Past Due (>120 days) Past Due (1-15 days) Past Due (16-30 days)
## 0.0001404285 0.0070740848 0.0023258467
## Past Due (31-60 days) Past Due (61-90 days) Past Due (91-120 days)
## 0.0031859712 0.0027471322 0.0026681412
The majority of the loans are Current (50%) and 33% are completed. There are 4.4% of defaulted loans and 10.5% of charged-off loans.
The dataset contains total 113,937 observations with 81 variables.
Interesting categorical variables:
The most interesting feature is ProsperScore, EstimatedReturn, BorrowerAPR, LoanOriginalAmount because I'd like to create a preditive model that predicts the ProsperScore that informs the lender on a loan decision. I believe EstimatedReturn, BorrowerAPR, LoanOriginalAmount can be important indicators of the ProsperScore.
I think three categories of variables will help predict the model I would like to create.
I created 4 new variables which converts the factor variables relating to date (ListingCreationDate, ClosedDate, DateCreditPulled, FirstRecordedCreditLine) into Date type. I created them due to the need to draw the time series plot of LoanOriginationDate.
In the historgram of TotalProsperLoans, I adjusted the Y Axis to log scale. This allows the negative exponential relationship to be better presented. StatedMonthlyIncome histogram's X Axis was adjusted to log scale in order to present its normal distribution.
I also adjusted the bin width for a few histograms including LoanOriginalAmount, EstimatedReturn, EstimatedLoss, BorrowerAPR. I did so because default binwidth from qplot is too large so that some of the finer patterns (such as spikes over times of 5000 of LoanOriginalAmount).
## ProsperScore BorrowerAPR LenderYield
## ProsperScore 1.000000000 -0.7756081832 -0.7568693207
## BorrowerAPR -0.775608183 1.0000000000 0.9933354234
## LenderYield -0.756869321 0.9933354234 1.0000000000
## EstimatedEffectiveYield -0.722746101 0.7975218152 0.7925556235
## EstimatedLoss -0.717750956 0.9153079884 0.9129083651
## EstimatedReturn -0.526230487 0.7408701771 0.7594150419
## DebtToIncomeRatio -0.188196543 0.1752669698 0.1711300152
## StatedMonthlyIncome 0.176385631 -0.1981553243 -0.1946869337
## TotalProsperLoans 0.068466164 -0.0494553437 -0.0491863786
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled 0.045597505 0.0261556567 0.0251046567
## CreditScoreRangeLower 0.483291107 -0.7031465276 -0.6858133948
## CreditScoreRangeUpper 0.483291107 -0.7031465276 -0.6858133948
## CurrentCreditLines -0.051972118 0.0236402185 0.0245897893
## OpenCreditLines -0.027991537 0.0039527524 0.0054184901
## TotalCreditLinespast7years -0.130740839 0.1013894315 0.1010506039
## OpenRevolvingAccounts 0.036237188 -0.0425180489 -0.0412906803
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment -0.001285185 0.0005081251 -0.0005642008
## CurrentDelinquencies -0.184801155 0.1999374629 0.1951766603
## AmountDelinquent -0.073729852 0.0661589858 0.0621256703
## DelinquenciesLast7Years -0.141045290 0.1709799691 0.1665368389
## EstimatedEffectiveYield EstimatedLoss
## ProsperScore -0.722746101 -0.717750956
## BorrowerAPR 0.797521815 0.915307988
## LenderYield 0.792555623 0.912908365
## EstimatedEffectiveYield 1.000000000 0.579764141
## EstimatedLoss 0.579764141 1.000000000
## EstimatedReturn 0.811548399 0.432283571
## DebtToIncomeRatio 0.185199666 0.151735903
## StatedMonthlyIncome -0.144907090 -0.184053781
## TotalProsperLoans -0.007421791 -0.035702291
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled 0.011213550 0.045366434
## CreditScoreRangeLower -0.587233268 -0.649480807
## CreditScoreRangeUpper -0.587233268 -0.649480807
## CurrentCreditLines 0.055681024 0.017747170
## OpenCreditLines 0.043942319 0.000775706
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 0.106500038 0.095720279
## OpenRevolvingAccounts -0.003185943 -0.047563091
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment 0.043379178 -0.019428240
## CurrentDelinquencies 0.150200026 0.210329006
## AmountDelinquent 0.065092198 0.061061195
## DelinquenciesLast7Years 0.137864873 0.166264744
## EstimatedReturn DebtToIncomeRatio
## ProsperScore -0.5262304875 -0.188196543
## BorrowerAPR 0.7408701771 0.175266970
## LenderYield 0.7594150419 0.171130015
## EstimatedEffectiveYield 0.8115483985 0.185199666
## EstimatedLoss 0.4322835715 0.151735903
## EstimatedReturn 1.0000000000 0.130799420
## DebtToIncomeRatio 0.1307994197 1.000000000
## StatedMonthlyIncome -0.1428056377 -0.200341005
## TotalProsperLoans -0.0614952567 0.008303509
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled -0.0158679317 0.014252417
## CreditScoreRangeLower -0.4775955525 -0.068101400
## CreditScoreRangeUpper -0.4775955525 -0.068101400
## CurrentCreditLines 0.0173980251 0.141700358
## OpenCreditLines -0.0004439253 0.147738368
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 0.0678500227 0.073401764
## OpenRevolvingAccounts -0.0230184363 0.111563761
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment 0.0228440506 0.110171436
## CurrentDelinquencies 0.0980637280 -0.033791124
## AmountDelinquent 0.0384208893 -0.033351034
## DelinquenciesLast7Years 0.1009121335 -0.066321404
## StatedMonthlyIncome TotalProsperLoans
## ProsperScore 0.176385631 0.068466164
## BorrowerAPR -0.198155324 -0.049455344
## LenderYield -0.194686934 -0.049186379
## EstimatedEffectiveYield -0.144907090 -0.007421791
## EstimatedLoss -0.184053781 -0.035702291
## EstimatedReturn -0.142805638 -0.061495257
## DebtToIncomeRatio -0.200341005 0.008303509
## StatedMonthlyIncome 1.000000000 0.022127365
## TotalProsperLoans 0.022127365 1.000000000
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled -0.008263897 0.709828656
## CreditScoreRangeLower 0.149756673 -0.007428554
## CreditScoreRangeUpper 0.149756673 -0.007428554
## CurrentCreditLines 0.261973105 0.088060143
## OpenCreditLines 0.254406275 0.070520470
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 0.234230348 0.132494357
## OpenRevolvingAccounts 0.174564346 0.036855177
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment 0.367056149 0.009217599
## CurrentDelinquencies -0.025870825 0.000478030
## AmountDelinquent 0.026108752 0.001815828
## DelinquenciesLast7Years -0.031009072 -0.027535815
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled
## ProsperScore 0.045597505
## BorrowerAPR 0.026155657
## LenderYield 0.025104657
## EstimatedEffectiveYield 0.011213550
## EstimatedLoss 0.045366434
## EstimatedReturn -0.015867932
## DebtToIncomeRatio 0.014252417
## StatedMonthlyIncome -0.008263897
## TotalProsperLoans 0.709828656
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled 1.000000000
## CreditScoreRangeLower -0.071590149
## CreditScoreRangeUpper -0.071590149
## CurrentCreditLines 0.062899685
## OpenCreditLines 0.052725632
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 0.065882171
## OpenRevolvingAccounts 0.016109632
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment 0.012702300
## CurrentDelinquencies 0.051584683
## AmountDelinquent 0.025252482
## DelinquenciesLast7Years 0.022932986
## CreditScoreRangeLower CreditScoreRangeUpper
## ProsperScore 0.483291107 0.483291107
## BorrowerAPR -0.703146528 -0.703146528
## LenderYield -0.685813395 -0.685813395
## EstimatedEffectiveYield -0.587233268 -0.587233268
## EstimatedLoss -0.649480807 -0.649480807
## EstimatedReturn -0.477595552 -0.477595552
## DebtToIncomeRatio -0.068101400 -0.068101400
## StatedMonthlyIncome 0.149756673 0.149756673
## TotalProsperLoans -0.007428554 -0.007428554
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled -0.071590149 -0.071590149
## CreditScoreRangeLower 1.000000000 1.000000000
## CreditScoreRangeUpper 1.000000000 1.000000000
## CurrentCreditLines 0.041655502 0.041655502
## OpenCreditLines 0.047218968 0.047218968
## TotalCreditLinespast7years -0.012833413 -0.012833413
## OpenRevolvingAccounts 0.064060292 0.064060292
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment 0.013485898 0.013485898
## CurrentDelinquencies -0.206635053 -0.206635053
## AmountDelinquent -0.065088824 -0.065088824
## DelinquenciesLast7Years -0.205795835 -0.205795835
## CurrentCreditLines OpenCreditLines
## ProsperScore -0.05197212 -0.0279915371
## BorrowerAPR 0.02364022 0.0039527524
## LenderYield 0.02458979 0.0054184901
## EstimatedEffectiveYield 0.05568102 0.0439423192
## EstimatedLoss 0.01774717 0.0007757060
## EstimatedReturn 0.01739803 -0.0004439253
## DebtToIncomeRatio 0.14170036 0.1477383684
## StatedMonthlyIncome 0.26197311 0.2544062748
## TotalProsperLoans 0.08806014 0.0705204703
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled 0.06289968 0.0527256320
## CreditScoreRangeLower 0.04165550 0.0472189680
## CreditScoreRangeUpper 0.04165550 0.0472189680
## CurrentCreditLines 1.00000000 0.9524770655
## OpenCreditLines 0.95247707 1.0000000000
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 0.61617624 0.5628001179
## OpenRevolvingAccounts 0.83874246 0.8766942654
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment 0.52962909 0.5498678426
## CurrentDelinquencies -0.15011637 -0.1376370922
## AmountDelinquent -0.08299808 -0.0752859330
## DelinquenciesLast7Years -0.18059603 -0.1785594837
## TotalCreditLinespast7years
## ProsperScore -0.13074084
## BorrowerAPR 0.10138943
## LenderYield 0.10105060
## EstimatedEffectiveYield 0.10650004
## EstimatedLoss 0.09572028
## EstimatedReturn 0.06785002
## DebtToIncomeRatio 0.07340176
## StatedMonthlyIncome 0.23423035
## TotalProsperLoans 0.13249436
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled 0.06588217
## CreditScoreRangeLower -0.01283341
## CreditScoreRangeUpper -0.01283341
## CurrentCreditLines 0.61617624
## OpenCreditLines 0.56280012
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 1.00000000
## OpenRevolvingAccounts 0.49021591
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment 0.32678090
## CurrentDelinquencies 0.11001538
## AmountDelinquent 0.05817124
## DelinquenciesLast7Years 0.13835710
## OpenRevolvingAccounts
## ProsperScore 0.036237188
## BorrowerAPR -0.042518049
## LenderYield -0.041290680
## EstimatedEffectiveYield -0.003185943
## EstimatedLoss -0.047563091
## EstimatedReturn -0.023018436
## DebtToIncomeRatio 0.111563761
## StatedMonthlyIncome 0.174564346
## TotalProsperLoans 0.036855177
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled 0.016109632
## CreditScoreRangeLower 0.064060292
## CreditScoreRangeUpper 0.064060292
## CurrentCreditLines 0.838742457
## OpenCreditLines 0.876694265
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 0.490215905
## OpenRevolvingAccounts 1.000000000
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment 0.559699486
## CurrentDelinquencies -0.133712438
## AmountDelinquent -0.068939857
## DelinquenciesLast7Years -0.170037309
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment
## ProsperScore -0.0012851853
## BorrowerAPR 0.0005081251
## LenderYield -0.0005642008
## EstimatedEffectiveYield 0.0433791784
## EstimatedLoss -0.0194282400
## EstimatedReturn 0.0228440506
## DebtToIncomeRatio 0.1101714356
## StatedMonthlyIncome 0.3670561492
## TotalProsperLoans 0.0092175989
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled 0.0127022998
## CreditScoreRangeLower 0.0134858976
## CreditScoreRangeUpper 0.0134858976
## CurrentCreditLines 0.5296290929
## OpenCreditLines 0.5498678426
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 0.3267808977
## OpenRevolvingAccounts 0.5596994862
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment 1.0000000000
## CurrentDelinquencies -0.1238420972
## AmountDelinquent -0.0510756543
## DelinquenciesLast7Years -0.1776844109
## CurrentDelinquencies AmountDelinquent
## ProsperScore -0.18480115 -0.073729852
## BorrowerAPR 0.19993746 0.066158986
## LenderYield 0.19517666 0.062125670
## EstimatedEffectiveYield 0.15020003 0.065092198
## EstimatedLoss 0.21032901 0.061061195
## EstimatedReturn 0.09806373 0.038420889
## DebtToIncomeRatio -0.03379112 -0.033351034
## StatedMonthlyIncome -0.02587082 0.026108752
## TotalProsperLoans 0.00047803 0.001815828
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled 0.05158468 0.025252482
## CreditScoreRangeLower -0.20663505 -0.065088824
## CreditScoreRangeUpper -0.20663505 -0.065088824
## CurrentCreditLines -0.15011637 -0.082998078
## OpenCreditLines -0.13763709 -0.075285933
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 0.11001538 0.058171238
## OpenRevolvingAccounts -0.13371244 -0.068939857
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment -0.12384210 -0.051075654
## CurrentDelinquencies 1.00000000 0.436999384
## AmountDelinquent 0.43699938 1.000000000
## DelinquenciesLast7Years 0.42058704 0.309680266
## DelinquenciesLast7Years
## ProsperScore -0.14104529
## BorrowerAPR 0.17097997
## LenderYield 0.16653684
## EstimatedEffectiveYield 0.13786487
## EstimatedLoss 0.16626474
## EstimatedReturn 0.10091213
## DebtToIncomeRatio -0.06632140
## StatedMonthlyIncome -0.03100907
## TotalProsperLoans -0.02753582
## TotalProsperPaymentsBilled 0.02293299
## CreditScoreRangeLower -0.20579584
## CreditScoreRangeUpper -0.20579584
## CurrentCreditLines -0.18059603
## OpenCreditLines -0.17855948
## TotalCreditLinespast7years 0.13835710
## OpenRevolvingAccounts -0.17003731
## OpenRevolvingMonthlyPayment -0.17768441
## CurrentDelinquencies 0.42058704
## AmountDelinquent 0.30968027
## DelinquenciesLast7Years 1.00000000
The correlation matrix shows that ProsperScore has strong negative correlation with BorrowerAPR, LenderYield, EstimatedEffectiveYield, EstimatedLoss and fair negative correlation with EstimatedReturn. BorrowerAPR and LenderYield are correlated with each other. ProsperScore has strong positive correlation with CreditScoreRangeLower and CreditScoreRangeUpper (these two are correlated with each other). It has some correlation with DebtToIncomeRatio (negative) and StatedMonthlyIncome (positive). We should closely look at the relationship of ProsperScore and the interest-related variables.
A quick preview of these correlation is plotted as below.
The boxplots visually present that ProsperScore is negatively correlated with BorrowerAPR, LenderYield, EstimatedEffectiveYield, EstimatedLoss, EstimatedReturn. This makes sense as it is intuitive for lenders to get higher return at higher risk (lower ProsperScore).
The overall BorrowerAPR posed a decreasing trend with increase of ProsperScore. However, it is noticed that there are a few dense area of BorrowerAPR around 0.36 for ProsperScore within 2-5. What are those loans and why they stay close to 0.36? I'd like to plot the histograms for each ProsperScore to highlight this pattern.
The above plots confirms that there are quite many loans (ProsperScore <= 5) are at BorrowerAPR ~ 0.35. What are they? Also, for loans with ProsperScore in 6-7, the BorrowersAPR distribution appears to be bimodal or multimodal peaking at 0.2 and 0.3. I'm going to investigate a little more on those odd loans.
##
## 0.3504 0.3505 0.35088 0.3509 0.35097 0.35118 0.35132 0.35169 0.3522
## 1 5 1 50 27 1 254 1 1
## 0.35244 0.3525 0.3527 0.35285 0.35356 0.35365 0.35372 0.35394 0.35423
## 69 1 1 214 656 11 1 1 7
## 0.35495 0.35602 0.35617 0.35643 0.35644 0.35654 0.35699 0.35772 0.35797
## 1 2 1 1531 1 7 2 1 3410
## 0.35811 0.35819 0.35838 0.3584 0.35842 0.35843 0.35858 0.3586 0.35879
## 1 1 117 15 1 101 66 1 1
## 0.35898 0.3593 0.36075 0.36113 0.36145 0.36158 0.36178 0.36207 0.36235
## 2 3 1 2 1 3 1 1 1
## 0.36275 0.3628 0.36336 0.36346 0.36421 0.36428 0.36438 0.36461 0.36548
## 1 4 1 1 1 1 9 1 1
## 0.36564 0.36574 0.36578 0.36666 0.36676 0.36697 0.36716 0.36844 0.36845
## 1 1 1 1 8 1 1 1 1
## 0.36895 0.36929 0.36937 0.36945 0.3696 0.36983
## 1 1 1 2 1 1
There are 3410 loans with BorrowerAPR at 0.35797 and 1531 loans at 0.35643.
It appears that these loans are mainly within period of 2011-2013. Did something happen after the beginnig of 2013 which led to the reduction?
The relationship between ProsperScore and EstimatedReturn appears to be similar to the one between ProsperScore and BorrowerAPR, i.e. negative correlation.
IncomeRange lower than or equal to $50K (including “Not employed”) get median value of ProsperScore 5. $50K-$100K gets 6 and over $100K gets 7.
The boxplot shows that the median value of StatedMonthlyIncome tend to be higher with increase of the Prosper Score. Yet there is only one oddity: ProsperScore of 1 has higher income than Score 2 and even 5. This could be due to that some people lied about their income which led to a low credit ratings and thus a low ProsperScore. The median values of StatedMonthlyIncome against ProsperScore appears to be an exponential distribution.
The above plot shows the median value of StatedMonthlyIncome presents an increasing trend against ProsperScore.
Above plot shows the same plot as the previous one but with split of IncomeVerifiable. It is noticed that the oddity of Prosper 1 still exists even in the IncomeVerifiable = TRUE subset. This means there are other factors that contribute to this oddity.
It makes sense that DebtToIncomeRatio is negatively correlated with ProsperScore.
It seems that the TotalProsperPaymentsBills, CreditScoreRangeLower, CreditScoreRangeUpper are positively correlated with ProsperScore. AmountDelinquent, DelinquenciesLast7Years are negatively correlated with ProsperScore.
In general, the median values of LoanOriginalAmount shows that the LoanOriginalAmount increases with increase of ProsperScore. This makes sense as lenders could be cautious with lending larger amount with larger risks (i.e. low ProsperScore). The NA values for loans before 2009, which led to the question that why those loans have much lower LoanOriginalAmount with median value around 4000?
With the increase of LoanOriginalAmount, the width of BorrowerAPR is narrowing down from 0.05-0.40 for $1K to 0.10-0.20 at $35K.
The above faceted histograms confirmed this pattern. This indicates that the fewer APR options when quoting larger loans.
As described in the Bivariate Plots Section, ProsperScore has strong negative correlation with BorrowerAPR, LenderYield, EstimatedEffectiveYield, EstimatedLoss, EstimatedReturn. ProsperScore has strong positive correlation with CreditScoreRangeLower and CreditScoreRangeUpper (these two are correlated with each other). It has some correlation with DebtToIncomeRatio (negative) and StatedMonthlyIncome (positive).
Also, as the LoanOriginalAmount increases, the BorrowerAPR is narrowing down, which means the options for larger loans are limited.
By investigating the distributions of BorrowerAPR by ProsperScore, it is found that there are quite a lot of loans with interest of 0.35797 and 0.35643 within ProsperScore range of 2-5. A further check shows that these loans are mainly created in 2011-2012.
CreditScoreRangeLower and CreditScoreRangeUpper are correlated with each other. BorrowerAPR and LenderYield are correlated to each other.
The ProsperScore is strongly correlated with interest-related variables, particularly BorrowerAPR. It has some correlation with CreditScoreRangeLower/CreditScoreRangeUpper, but this is lower than the one with BorrowerAPR, LenderYield, EstimatedEffectiveYield, EstimatedLoss, EstimatedReturn.
The scatter plot confirms that with increase of ProsperScore, the BorrowerAPR tends to be lower. However, there seems to be no obvious correlation between StatedMonthlyIncome and the ProsperScore.
It seems that the CreditScoreRangeLower present a negative linear correlation (though a bit weak) with BorrowerAPR. Also, BorrowerAPR is within a smaller range with larger median values and more lower ProsperScore when the CreditScoreRangeLower is small.
The distribution for BorrowerAPR and EstimatedEffectiveYield is clearly consisted of multiple straight lines. On the direction from top left to bottom right, the ProsperScore tends to be decreasing but seems to be bimodal or multimodal for lower range scores (1-5).
Again it is noticably true that the distribution is consisted of multiple linear relationships, but the separation is not that obvious.
Above scatter matrix presents the correlations between the interest variables. BorrowerAPR and LenderYield posed a strong linear relationship.
##
## Calls:
## m1: lm(formula = ProsperScore ~ BorrowerAPR, data = df)
## m2: lm(formula = ProsperScore ~ BorrowerAPR + DebtToIncomeRatio +
## log(StatedMonthlyIncome), data = df)
## m3: lm(formula = ProsperScore ~ BorrowerAPR + DebtToIncomeRatio +
## log(StatedMonthlyIncome) + CreditScoreRangeLower, data = df)
## m4: lm(formula = ProsperScore ~ BorrowerAPR + DebtToIncomeRatio +
## log(StatedMonthlyIncome) + CreditScoreRangeLower + OpenRevolvingAccounts +
## CurrentDelinquencies + AmountDelinquent + DelinquenciesLast7Years,
## data = df)
## m5: lm(formula = ProsperScore ~ BorrowerAPR + DebtToIncomeRatio +
## log(StatedMonthlyIncome) + CreditScoreRangeLower + OpenRevolvingAccounts +
## CurrentDelinquencies + AmountDelinquent + DelinquenciesLast7Years +
## EstimatedEffectiveYield + EstimatedLoss + EstimatedReturn,
## data = df)
##
## =====================================================================================
## m1 m2 m3 m4 m5
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## (Intercept) 10.454*** 9.294*** 8.191*** 7.808*** 10.150***
## (0.018) (0.110) (0.162) (0.163) (0.153)
## BorrowerAPR -19.873*** -19.677*** -19.195*** -19.324*** -56.296***
## (0.076) (0.082) (0.096) (0.097) (0.649)
## DebtToIncomeRatio -0.326*** -0.342*** -0.220*** -0.095***
## (0.022) (0.022) (0.022) (0.020)
## log(StatedMonthlyIncome) 0.147*** 0.143*** 0.217*** 0.217***
## (0.012) (0.012) (0.012) (0.011)
## CreditScoreRangeLower 0.001*** 0.001*** -0.002***
## (0.000) (0.000) (0.000)
## OpenRevolvingAccounts -0.035*** -0.022***
## (0.001) (0.001)
## CurrentDelinquencies 0.003 0.006
## (0.006) (0.006)
## AmountDelinquent -0.000** -0.000
## (0.000) (0.000)
## DelinquenciesLast7Years -0.002* 0.002*
## (0.001) (0.001)
## EstimatedEffectiveYield -11.515***
## (0.206)
## EstimatedLoss 43.947***
## (0.783)
## EstimatedReturn 67.401***
## (0.611)
## -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
## R-squared 0.447 0.459 0.460 0.464 0.563
## adj. R-squared 0.447 0.459 0.460 0.464 0.563
## sigma 1.768 1.737 1.736 1.729 1.561
## F 68477.863 21976.935 16522.804 8395.500 9097.860
## p 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
## Log-likelihood -168748.663 -152861.786 -152818.227 -152528.761 -144581.194
## Deviance 265198.520 233938.238 233675.608 231937.806 188957.385
## AIC 337503.326 305733.571 305648.453 305077.521 289188.389
## BIC 337531.372 305779.865 305704.006 305170.109 289308.753
## N 84853 77557 77557 77557 77557
## =====================================================================================
The results of the model seems to be quite bad as it only predicts 17% of the correct ProsperScore.
##
## 0 1
## 64563 12994
## ProsperScore ProsperScore.pred
## 1 NA 7
## 2 7 7
## 3 NA NA
## 4 9 8
## 5 4 5
## 6 10 7
## 7 2 4
## 8 4 5
## 9 9 8
## 10 11 8
## 11 7 5
## 12 NA 7
## 13 4 6
## 14 8 7
## 15 8 7
## 16 5 3
## 17 4 4
## 18 NA NA
## 19 7 8
## 20 8 5
## 21 7 7
## 22 NA 6
## 23 2 0
## 24 5 4
## 25 5 6
## 26 3 4
## 27 3 4
## 28 9 8
## 29 4 6
## 30 6 7
## 31 9 7
## 32 5 3
## 33 8 7
## 34 10 9
## 35 5 5
## 36 8 6
## 37 2 4
## 38 6 4
## 39 9 8
## 40 NA NA
## 41 4 NA
## 42 8 6
## 43 NA NA
## 44 6 6
## 45 5 6
## 46 7 7
## 47 NA 6
## 48 8 7
## 49 6 7
## 50 10 8
The reason for the underperformance is that the model doesn't predict correctly for loans with ProsperScore over 9 and equal to 1.
I plotted the StatedMonthlyIncome and BorrowerAPR split by ProsperScore but found the ProsperScore is a little crowded. So I split the ProsperScore into 4 buckets. The relationship confirmed that ProsperScore decreases with increase of BorrowerAPR, which means loans with lower risks have higher ProsperScore. But there is only a very weak negative correlation between StatedMonthlyIncome and BorrowerAPR. Another plot showing the relationship between CreditScoreRangeLower and BorrowerAPR presents BorrowerAPR tends to be higher with lower CreditScoreRangeLower and higher ProsperScore means higher Credit Score.
Also, by looking at the variables of BorrowerAPR, LenderYield, EstimatedEffectiveYield, EstimatedLoss, EstimatedReturn, I found BorrowerAPR and LenderYield are tightly correlated with pearson correlation neaer 1. It is also interesting to see that EstimatedEffectiveYield are always higher than EstimatedReturn. The EstimatedLoss and EstimatedEffectiveYield tend to be a linear relationship.
It is interesting to see the income (StatedMonthlyIncome) doesn't impact the BorrowerAPR so much (though it has a very weak impact). This is probably that the income itself is not a strong indicator of high credit from the point view of Prosper.
Yes, I created a linear model with the dataset. The main strength of the model is that it highlights the what factors contribute to the ProsperScore. For example, for model m5, for every 0.05 increase of BorrowerAPR, the ProsperScore decreases by about 1 (=0.05 * -19.324). However, the R squared of this model is small (~0.464), which means another half of the variance is unexplained.
I have chosen this plot because it is reflective to show how the distribution of Borrower APR changes at different Prosper Scores.
This faceted histogram presents a clear negative relationship between Borrower APR and Prosper Score. The former is generally low at higher Prosper Score, as the peak of the APR distribution shifts from right to left as Prosper Score increases. However, it is surprising that there are some loans with oddly high APR near 36% even though the Prosper Score is within a lower range (2-5).
I have chosen this boxplot as it clearly demonstrates a positive correlation between monthly income and Prosper Score (though the correlation is weak, only around 0.084). The plot shows that the monthly income is generally higher given a higher Prosper Score. The only exception is the prosper score at 1, when the monthly income is slightly higher than score of 2-5, which is possibly because of income overstatement or non-verifiable issues.
I chose this time series plot because it tells a story about the Great Resessions of 2008-2012.
The number of loans originated increases since 2006 and stumbled to 0 since the end of 2008, as a result of the 2008 Global Finacial Crisis. Since the year end of 2009, the loans started to recover and climbed to 100 per day during the 3rd quarter in 2012 until dropping to 50 due to the 2012 Financial Crisis. Since 2013, loans started to increase and had a significant jump from 50 to 4 times more over the next 12 months.
The biggest challenge for this project is the selection of variables. There are many variables (81) in this dataset and it is quite hard to decide which variables to begin with. Fortunately, following the example project, I was able to create a correlation matrix which eased the variable selection process. I soon realised the ProsperScore is highly correlated with interest related variables such as BorrowerAPR and LenderYield. Before performing any analyses, I did the data profiling including looking at the types and structure of data columns. After performing the univariate exploration, I was able to get a general idea of the distribution of each interesting variable and discovered that there are so many loans with BorrowAPR at around 0.36. I was also able to tell the stories from the financial crisis impact from the time series plot from LoanOriginationDate. In the Bivariate Plots Section, I confirmed the negative correlation between BorrowerAPR and ProsperScore by looking at the jittered scatterplot and boxplot. I still struggled to understand how the ProsperScore can be predicted from properly selected variables. Further effort could probably be focused on analysing the variable association with the ProsperScore quantatively in order to predict the score more accurately.